Inventory of homes for sale shrinks for first time since January

After rising for nine straight months, the number of homes listed for sale fell for the first time in October across many U.S. markets.

The supply of homes available for sale in 26 major metropolitan areas fell by an average 3.3% last month compared to the previous month, the first month-over-month decline since January, according to figures compiled by ZipRealty Inc., a real-estate brokerage firm based in Emeryville, Calif.

Inventory fell on a monthly basis in 22 of those markets. The figures include all single-family homes, condominiums and townhouses listed on local multiple-listing services in markets where the firm operates.

Nationally, inventories typically increase in October as sellers make one last push before the seasonal downturn in sales hits. Zelman & Associates, a research firm, says October listings have typically increased by 0.8% from September over the past 28 years.

Compared to one year ago, the October inventory in the 26 markets covered by ZipRealty was up 13%. Home sales have been at very low levels since buyer tax credits expired in the spring, and that led inventories to pile up this summer.

The decline could reflect the fact that some frustrated sellers are throwing in the towel and deciding to wait until next year in hopes that demand will firm up. Some banks have also stopped selling foreclosed properties in certain states, including Florida, as they take steps to correct document-handling errors.

In Orlando, for example, inventory fell by 6.4% in October, after five straight months of increases. Other large decreases came in Austin, Texas (down 7.6%); Denver (6.5%); and Seattle (6%).

Inventories increased in Southwestern markets, led by Las Vegas (up 3.7%); Tucson, Ariz. (1.7%); Los Angeles (1.6%) and Phoenix (1.4%).

California metros also posted the largest annual increases in housing inventory: San Diego was up 62% for the year, followed by San Francisco, up 53%.

Inventories are down for the year in three Florida markets—Orlando, Jacksonville, Miami—as well as Chicago and Charlotte.

Several cities have seen more than half of all homes listed for sale have had their prices cut at the end of October, including Jacksonville, Phoenix, Chicago, Baltimore, Boston, Tuscon and California’s Orange County.

From https://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/11/19/housing-inventory-declines/

Construction costs down 15% – 25%

Times have been tough for homebuilders these days.

Sales have fallen to their lowest level in decades. And the buzz of saws and staccato beat of hammers are sounds seldom heard as production rates drop to lows not seen since World War II.

But developers are benefitting from a little reported side-effect to the housing slump: It’s cheaper now to build a home.

Builders say construction costs are down 15 to 25 percent.

That translates into an average cost of $100,000 to $140,000 for just the “sticks and bricks” (without land) for a modest, 2,000-square-foot house.

That same house cost $140,000 to $190,000 to build during the peak of the housing boom just four years ago.

Builders from Fort Worth’s D.R. Horton to Arizona’s Meritage Homes and Newport Beach’s William Lyon Homes have crowed in recent earnings reports about improved profit margins due to construction cost savings.

The savings could benefit consumers as well when passed on through lower prices, some industry officials say.

But the news isn’t so good if you happen to be a subcontractor or a rank-in-file construction worker.

Thanks to cutthroat competition, these cuts are coming out of their hides.

“It’s supply and demand,” explained Rich Lambros, CEO for the Irvine-based Building Industry Association of Southern California. “When you have a productive housing market, subcontractors are busy. Now, it’s the opposite.”

Subcontractors, industry officials say, have reduced their overhead and streamlined their operations to stay in business.

To survive, the plumbing, framing and roofing firms also have laid off as many as 70 percent of their employees. And the workers still employed have seen pay and benefits slashed.

A lack of work means more subcontractors are bidding for fewer jobs, said Liesel Cooper, president of KB Home’s Arizona division

“You’ve got to worry you’re (not) going to put the subs out of business,” she said.

Mark Swain of DePinho Roofing in Orange said that he’s seen competitors submit bids that were below his company’s direct costs.

“We’ve reacted to the market,” Swain said. “We’ve seen that our competitors have lowered their labor rates, and we’ve done to same to stay competitive.”

Hammer-and-nail types aren’t the only ones affected.

John Hogan, CEO for the engineering and planning firm Hall and Foreman of Tustin, noted that architects, engineers, planners, designers and landscapers all have felt the pressure to get prices down.

Hogan said that during the building boom, builders focused on schedule; price was secondary. Since then, however, the emphasis has been increasingly on price cuts.

To deal with a 75 percent drop in revenue, Hall and Foreman has laid off about half its workers, closed two of its six offices, diversified beyond homebuilding and foregone all fee hikes for five years.

“We have pared down our costs,” Hogan said.

Scott McKernan, president of Joseph Holt Plastering in Corona, said his goal has been to keep his profit margin around 7 or 8 percent after cutting prices by as much as 28 percent.

“I’ve been lucky to get 3 percent (in profits),” McKernan said. “This year, I won’t get any.”

Subcontractors had to do more than cut pay and reduce profits. They’ve had to examine their entire company structure, some said.

Those who have survived the downturn say they’ve learned to be more efficient by doing more up-front planning, closely watching schedules and reducing the time it takes to finish a job. Sophisticated subcontractors keep a close eye on their costs before submitting a bid.

But cuts in labor remain the key element.

Company matches for 401(k) retirement plans have been “suspended.” Employers no longer pay 100 percent of health insurance costs.

And in some cases, hourly wages have been shifted to “piece work” rates, under which workers get paid for the amount of work completed, not the hours worked.

“A typical laborer used to make between $150 and $180 a day,” observed McKernan. “Now (he or she is) making $60. Yeah, it’s sad.”

Builders note that they haven’t gotten much relief from government impact fees and other development charges.

Scott Stowell, chief operating officer for Standard Pacific Homes of Irvine, said that when all the costs of homebuilding are taken into account, “we’re just above break-even on a net basis.”

But homebuilders have benefited from more than construction cost savings. Falling land prices, government tax benefits and staff cutbacks in their own shops all have helped them boost margins lately.

Price drops for materials like lumber and drywall have helped some, but not much, industry officials say. And there have been reports that drywall costs could rise as much as 25 percent in coming months.

Costs for nails have doubled thanks to rising steel prices.

Ganahl Lumber’s purchasing Vice President Pete Meichtry says that overall material costs are down – at best – 5 to 10 percent.

Builders got more benefits by designing smaller, more economical homes, he said.

For example, builders may use 2.5-inch or 3.5-inch baseboard molding instead of four-inch strips. Or they build a straight-forward ridge instead of a more elaborate – and more costly – hip roof. Windows have shrunk by about 10 percent. These changes are subtle, but add up to big savings.

“It’s a combination of things,” Meichtry said. “The customer’s going to get a little less than he was a few years ago, but is not going to notice it.”

From > Builder Online

Ups and downs continue for residential construction

Signs of strengthening conditions in the housing industry emerged in the final months of 2010. November’s new-home construction and sales data released by the U.S. Census Bureau—while a mixed bag of declines and increases—were mostly positive, reflecting on-going economic volatility within the broader recovery along with housing’s slow return to health. Existing-home sales and pending home sales also increased, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Overall residential construction permits and completions declined in November by 4 percent and 14.1 percent, respectively, while overall housing starts increased by 3.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 444,000. Single-family permits rose by 3.0 percent, and starts of single-family residences jumped by 6.9 percent to a rate of 465,000. Completions of single-family homes dropped by 10 percent, however, to a rate of 436,000.

New single-family home sales rose 5.5 percent in November to a rate of 290,000, but this is still 21.2 percent below the same period last year.

Multifamily construction remains depressed across the board, registering a 24.2 percent drop in permits for units in buildings of five or more units since October; this is 11.3 percent lower than in November 2009. Starts of multifamily units declined 18.2 percent in November, while completions plunged 30.5 percent since October—more than 73 percent lower than the same period last year.

However, according to the American Institute of Architects’ most recent Architecture Billings Index (ABI), the multifamily design sector led the way in November in terms of improving health, scoring an ABI of 54.3. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings by architecture firms.

When compared with November 2009, this November’s new and existing residential activity lagged significantly. But late 2009’s high levels were a result of the new home buyer tax credit, which had builders and customers bent on securing contracts and completing projects in time for the original Nov. 30 deadline.

Due in part to improved home affordability, existing-home sales rose 5.6 percent in November, according to the NAR, and Pending Home Sales increased 3.5 percent. Although there is still a 9 1/2-month supply of existing homes on the market, NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, predicts the excess inventory will be worked off gradually as unemployment declines, mortgage rates remain favorable, and lenders return to more normal lending standards. Yun expects the market will trend up to healthy, sustainable levels during 2011.

> From Custom Home Online 

Do I need an Owner’s Representative?

1.    Feasibility Study / Due Diligence / Permitting

–       “Is there someone (with experience in construction) who can create the pro-forma for my project and see it through to completion?”

–       “What is the best infrastructure system for my building site site?”

 

2.    Cost Estimating and Monitoring

–       “I want the best value, not necessarily the lowest bid – who can give me the options?”

–       “What is the real cost of construction?”

–       “Who will qualify and evaluate all bids?”

 

3.    Buyout and procurement

–       “Is there someone who can buy materials for me at cost?”

–       “Who will qualify (quality and price) the subcontractors that will be working on my home?”

 

4.    Value Engineering

–       “Can I substitute materials or methods to save money or get a better value?”

–       “Should I decide to sell the property upon completion, am I building above or below the current market value?”

 

5.    Contract Management

–       “Who will coordinate the architect, design review, permitting, general contractor, engineering, landscaping, interior design & property management?”

–       “I don’t want to be bogged down with the day to day construction questions – who will be onsite daily acting as my representative and answering questions?”

–       “Who will resolve disputes so the project doesn’t get stalled?”

–       “Who will validate and monitor change orders?”

 

6.    Office Management

–       “Who will review invoices, make payments and secure all lien releases?”

–       “I want forensic detailed accounting throughout my project – who can provide me with this detail?”

–       “Who is monitoring my construction costs?”

–       “Who is tracking legal and claim avoidance policies and procedures?”

 

7.    Document Management

–       “I would like someone to organize and track all project documents and provide me will electronic documentation at the completion of the project.”

–       “I would like to see daily logs from the project.”

–       “I would like to see a live video feed of the project.”

 

8.    Scheduling

–       “Who will build and monitor a complete project schedule?”

–       “Who can make resource allocation recommendations when the project falls behind schedule?”

 

9.    Construction monitoring and inspections

–       “With no local building inspector, who will handle inspections?”

–       “Am I getting what I am paying for –does the construction match the plans?”

–       “Who will be monitoring the quality of construction?”

 

10.  Post Construction Services

–       “Who is the third party who can certify Substantial Completion?”

–       “Who will create and monitor the punch list?”

–       “Who should I choose to maintain the property in my absence?”

How to hire a construction manager

Most consulting firms today offer “construction management services.” However, the interpretation of construction management and the services it entails greatly varies. According to the Construction Management Association of America, “construction management is a professional service that applies effective management techniques to the planning, design, and construction of a project from inception to completion for the purpose of controlling time, cost, and quality.”

While that definition may seem simple enough, the selection of the proper firm can make or break your project. By selecting the proper firm, you can help manage risks and control costs at every stage of the project, from preconstruction planning and complete construction oversight to post-construction services.

What Is Their Role?

Undertaking a construction project is a complex endeavor. It is critically important that public works directors and municipal leaders clearly articulate their goals for the project to all members of the design and construction team, including the architect, engineer, and contractor. Construction management firms can help by leveling the playing field between the owner and the contractor, and ensuring that everyone is informed and understands their role, expectations, and schedule for completing the project on time.

The role of a construction management firm is especially important in the public sector since many public agencies, especially smaller communities, undertake substantial construction projects—such as a fire station, library, or community center—only once a generation, whereas a construction firm that they would be working with may construct many similar projects in the course of a year. This leads to a gap in knowledge and experience. By integrating a construction management firm into the project, you can balance the experience level between the owner and the construction firm.

Yet another reason to consult with a construction management firm is that these services often are included with the architectural and engineering services as an afterthought or merely as a requirement. Unfortunately, by the time construction begins, the design team may very well see their profit margin for the project shrinking.

To accommodate the shrinking budget, it is common practice to send the rookie or team member who bills the lowest to monitor the project and provide the promised construction administration services. This person may have had little involvement on the project before this and may not feel comfortable asserting the owner’s interest to the contractor. Further, this representative may lack the necessary experience to truly be a creative problem-solver. This approach results in construction observation rather than construction management since the construction process is just being monitored—not explored for methods to control the cost and schedule.

When To Hire

Recognizing that true construction management can improve the success of your project, it is important to hire a firm whose core competency is construction management. Contrary to popular belief, the first firm hired for a project should be the construction manager, not the architect or contractor. A construction management firm is most effective when it is not only afforded the opportunity to manage the construction, but is also a part of the design, bringing value to a project even before the contractor is onsite.

By hiring the construction management firm at project inception, the firm can work with the owner to develop contract documents that are owner-friendly and can focus on preconstruction services, value engineering, and cost estimating on the front end, which will help control costs and ensure adherence to the schedule. And since the design process often takes longer than expected, which can result in a shortened construction schedule, having the construction management firm involved from the beginning can assist in keeping all phases of the project on schedule and ensure optimal results.

Early involvement also allows the construction manager to conduct a constructability review and examine the construction documents before they go out for review. With this approach, minor revisions can be made to increase efficiencies. For example, a project can be on the drawing board for several years with intimate involvement from the architect, engineers, and owners. This team then expects a contractor to review the documents and understand all the background information that led to the development of the documents in a mere four to six weeks.

It is easy for the design team to overlook certain items and not clearly articulate its goals because of the intimate involvement. However, review by a construction manager ensures that items are properly spelled out, which helps to avoid change orders and schedule delays that add cost to a project. This allows the contractor to provide the best possible bid cost and schedule.

Another area where the construction manager can offer considerable expertise is with the contract documents. Often, the contract that architectural firms use is a standard document available from the American Institute of Architects (AIA): therefore, it is ultimately serving the best interest of the architect. While these standard agreements provide a good starting point, the owner’s best interests are achieved by reviewing and altering the document to ensure the best position for the owner. For example, AIA documents are not specific about timing. The document states that the architect will review contractor questions or change orders but does not cite a time-frame for this response—a slow response can become a source of claims.

A construction manager’s expertise also extends to coordination with the contractor. Often on public works projects, the firm with the lowest bid secures the work. This philosophy provides contractors with the necessity of maximizing their profit on change-orders since they have already been asked to skinny-down their profit in the low bid. An “owner-friendly” contract can provide more specific language for the owner to control their project and limit their risk. A construction management firm can incorporate schedule milestones into the documents to provide accountability for the contractor. When goals and requirements are clearly explained in the documents, the risk of claims and change orders is dramatically reduced.

One of the most important elements to consider when hiring a construction management firm is experience. Examine the firm’s experience in projects similar to yours and be sure that it served as the construction manager for those projects, not merely as the contractor or another member of the team. Also, be sure to check references. Ask for a list of owners that the firm has worked with and contact them to evaluate performance. Finally, make sure that the firm provides comprehensive management with preconstruction, construction, and post-construction services. The proper firm will help level the playing field between the owner and contractor to ensure project success.

James Joyce – Public Works Online